Do Container freight rates will fall before New Year?

According to the latest data released by Shanghai Airlines Exchange on November 18, Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fall 136.45 points to 1306.84 last week, expanding its decline from 8.6% the previous week to 9.4%, for the third consecutive week. The European line is still the hardest hit one for the decline of freight rates.

November 11th, the freight rate of European line fell 306 dollars per TEU to 1172 dollars per TEU, a drop of 20.7%, falling to the starting point in 2019. The freight rate of Mediterranean line fall by $94 per TEU to $1967 per TEU, with a drop of 4.56%.

The freight rate of US West Line fell by $73 per FEU to $1559 per FEU, or 4.47%, a slight increase from 2.91% the previous week; The freight rate on the US East Line fall 346 dollars per FEU to 3877 dollars per FEU, or 8.19%.

Insiders said that, following the sharp fall of the Far East-US West Line, the decline of the European Line has increased since November, with a decline of more than 20% last week. As the European energy crisis may speed up the local economic recession, recently the volume of goods to Europe has dropped sharply, as well as the freight rate. However, the latest freight rate decline of the Far East-US West Line, which has been declining previously, has converged, indicating that the market is unlikely to be in a permanent imbalance between supply and demand and will gradually adjust the supply of transport capacity.

In the Asian near-sea lines, although the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, the current market performance is still not comparable to the same period last year, and the freight rate has a trend of rising and falling. The freight rate of each TEU on Japan's Guanxi Line rose by $9 to $331, or 2.8%; The freight rate of Japan's Kanto Line per TEU fall by $10 to $318, or 3.1%. The freight rate of Southeast Asia Line (Singapore) per TEU fall by $19 to $327, or 5.49%; The freight rate of South Korea Line (Busan) per TEU continued to fall by $2 to $254.

According to the analysis of insiders, it seems that the fourth quarter has entered the off-season of the ocean going shipping line, so it is normal to see less market volume. The freight rate of US West Line has stabilized, but the decline of the European line has expanded, which may continue to fall after the Spring Festival in the first quarter of next year; The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season of the near sea line, so, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the recovery of goods is still expected.

But as Christmas and New Year (Also Chinese New Year coming on January) As our past export experience for windows doors, the shipping cost will be rising again on middle of December before Christmas.

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